Vegas Odds: Your Biggest Daily Fantasy Football Asset
The Vegas odds are an important part of daily Fantasy Football Asset research. If they aren’t, you are missing out on a simple screening tool that can help you make the right decision when selecting a cash-worthy DFS team. The following sections will show you how to quickly gain valuable daily fantasy insight by simply looking at the Vegas odds. Each game total and assigned point spread tells you a story about the outcome of the matchup. These numbers can be used to guide daily fantasy selections.
The Story of the Over/Under
A higher over/under is usually indicative of a better environment for fantasy gaming. There are exceptions to this statement. We will discuss those in the next section. The average over/under is 45-46 total points. If totals rise significantly beyond that range (into 50s), fantasy potential for skill players and quarterbacks typically increases along with it. If you look at a complete daily fantasy slate, it is possible to avoid totals that fall below the 40s or high 30s.
It doesn’t matter how high or low the over/under is, it provides a quick shortcut for daily fantasy fans. When setting the lines, Vegas oddsmakers take into account matchups and tendencies, weather, injuries, and many other factors. Then they try to quantify it with a number. To quickly get an idea of the expected scoring for any game, we can glance at this over/under. The over/under, also known as the game total, has a direct correlation to fantasy potential.
Understanding Game Flow
Now we’ve discussed what the over/under means and how it translates into predictability in fantasy football daily. Let’s talk about “game flow”.
Fantasy Football Asset Game flow simply combines the over/under and point spread to give an idea of each team’s approach to this matchup. It examines the possible play calling of each team in the event that the matchup develops as predicted by the Vegas oddsmakers.
Let’s take, for example, the Patriots being 10 points ahead of the Bills. This line would imply that the Patriots would run the ball and maintain a lead of seven to 10 points in the second half if that is the case. This is a potential favorable spot for Patriots’ running backs (more volume), from a game flow perspective. While you will need to examine the defense’s run play, the Vegas odds can be used to help spot game flow in daily fantasy.
Game Flow #1 – Home Favorites = Choose an RB/DEF
Let’s take a look at certain game flow scenarios and see what that means for fantasy football. As New England is 10-point home favorites against Buffalo, the previous example shows that it’s a good time to focus on the Patriots’ running offense and defense. These two positions are often in direct correlation. Holding an opponent to a minimum number of points allows for a significant lead that can be used to highlight a second-half running style. It helps with field position and makes it easier for opponents to pass. New England’s defense will be able to keep their pass rush moving at maximum speed, increasing their chances for sacks or interceptions.
This rule is important: Home favorite teams with five points or more lend themselves to running backs and defense.
This screening Fantasy Football Asset tool is more effective when the point spread rises above five. Although five is a somewhat arbitrary number, it is a more secure number that allows a team to have a greater lead than the typical spread of a field goal. This is not uncommon in the NFL.
We prefer teams to play at home as they are more likely be a significant favorite. While it’s possible for wild things to happen on the road there is a greater chance that an away favorite will lose the momentum or the expected game flow.
Game Flow #2: How to Choose a QB/WR
In certain game flow situations, it is logical to choose a quarterback with wide receivers and tight ends. We’ll start with the “catch up” strategy. This strategy is the opposite of the home favourite scenario described in the previous section. If a team is behind by a significant amount, they will likely allow a pass-heavy approach to try and come back in quarter 4.
This rule is important: Underdogs with five points or more often find themselves with more passing attempts as they try to make a comeback. This gives quarterbacks and pass catchers more opportunities.
You will need to evaluate the overall abilities of the tight end, wide receiver and quarterback as well as the quality of their pass defense. This allows for more volume in the passing game.
Game Flow #3: Shootout Possibilities
Matchups with a high over/under or low point spread can often offer shootout opportunities. This means that both offenses could potentially trade points down the stretch.
This rule is important: A 50-point over/under with a spread of 3 points or less could indicate shootout potential.
A shootout with better potential is possible if the over/under caters to the higher end of 50 points and has a tight spread. This encourages tournament strategies that look towards key players on both sides.
In 2018, the Chiefs-Rams match had an incredible over/under of 64, with Los Angeles being favored by just one point. This is a great example of the rule. The teams scored a total of 105 points, with each quarterback throwing 10 passing touchdowns.
This strategy is known as a risk/reward tournament strategy for daily fantasy football. You basically put all your eggs into one (game) basket and hope that a high-scoring showdown comes true to its billing. You’ll reap the rewards if it does. Your lineup is doomed if it doesn’t.
The bottom line
These rules are not set in stone but can be used as a screening tool to aid your daily fantasy football lineup building. When assembling cash-generating DFS teams, other important factors such as matchups, player abilities, team tendencies, salaries, and general matchups are also crucial. Understanding Vegas odds and the key points above will improve your daily fantasy research abilities. Here are the rules again, just in case you need a refresher.
Favorable home favorites with five or more points are a good sign for running backs and defense.
Underdog teams of five points or more often find themselves with more passing attempts as they try to make a comeback. This gives quarterbacks and pass catchers more opportunities.
Shootout potential may be possible if the over/under is greater than 50 points and there is a spread of less than three points.